PHOENIX (By Billy House, Arizona Republic) January 11, 2007 — Call it a troop surge. Or an escalation.

Whatever the term and regardless of the specifics, many will remember President Bush's decision to send more troops to Iraq as John McCain's plan.

The senior Arizona senator and potential 2008 presidential candidate has been the most prominent champion of a troop increase in Iraq since a few months after the start of the war in 2003.

Iraq would be different today if the White House had listened to him, the Vietnam prisoner of war and decorated Naval officer has suggested. But he cautions that more troops now, with the situation in Iraq tenuous, may not be the answer it would have been.

"If it doesn't succeed, then we have to explore any other options. And I'd like to tell you what a good one is - and I can't," McCain said in a televised interview Wednesday before the president's speech.

Now, with Bush's announcement that more American troops are headed to Iraq, the success or failure of Bush's proposal could hold major implications for McCain.

"He's the one who's been out there wearing the concept of a surge on his sleeve and promoting it," New York-based national pollster John Zogby said. "How this plays out can have a huge impact on his presidential ambitions."

McCain, for his part, does not seem to care.

"I'd rather lose a campaign than lose a war," he said on CNN on Wednesday night.

Other Republicans, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have been out front in their support for more troops.

But McCain's determined call for an increase has been one of the clearest contrasts between him and potential 2008 presidential candidates, including those in his own party.

"There's no one else out there who is a serious candidate who even approximates taking the kind of position he has," Zogby said.

One potential GOP candidate, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, has been arguing against any surge, calling instead for a phased withdrawal. And Monday, another potential candidate, Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., came out against more troops. Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani both said Wednesday that they support the president.

Democratic hopefuls appear to be uniformly opposed to a surge. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has dubbed McCain's call for more troops "the McCain Doctrine."

Polls indicate that as many as three out of four Americans say the president's handling of the war has been fair or bad. And a Zogby poll in December said that fewer than one in three believes the war has been worth the loss of U.S. lives.

"John's taking a gutsy position, not because he's read any political opinion polls or sifted through the results of the last election, but because that's what's right for America," Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, an independent Democrat, said at the American Enterprise Institute last week.

But others have suggested some convenience, calculation and even wiggle room in McCain's position.

Some, such as those in the Senate Majority Project, a Democratic group, note that McCain had been among the voices in the first days after the Iraq invasion predicting a relatively short conflict and suggesting that Americans would be greeted as liberators.

But, by late 2003, McCain began expressing "no confidence" in then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and calling troop levels "inadequate." Since then, he has suggested "ramping up" by as many 15,000 to 30,000 soldiers to avoid what he has called "the most serious American defeat on the global stage since Vietnam," all while maintaining his support of the war.

Some political analysts have opined that McCain's unwavering support stands to pay political dividends.

"It's been a controversial position nationwide," said Fred Solop, a political science professor at Northern Arizona University. "But within the conservative wing of the Republican Party, it rests easy and may help him to win the Republican nomination."

Others, including National Public Radio senior news analyst Cokie Roberts, have described McCain's position as "a somewhat convenient position because he can always say, 'No one tried to win the war the way I suggested to win it.' "

Until Wednesday night.

Now, McCain finds himself potentially accountable for the outcome of the new strategy.

He may have given a hint last week, during the event at the conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington, of where he would find wiggle room, if needed: essentially by blaming Bush for not heeding his advice earlier.

"Even if we send additional troops to Iraq in large numbers for a sustained period, there is no guarantee for success in Iraq," he said. "We have made many, many mistakes since 2003, and these will not be easily reversed."