WASHINGTON (By Hans Nichols, Bloomberg) August 15, 2007 —
Representative Ciro Rodriguez picked up his phone in June and heard a
familiar, raspy voice: It was former President Bill Clinton, asking the
Texas Democrat to endorse his wife Hillary's White House bid.
"So far, they're the only campaign to contact me,''
said Rodriguez, former chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
He's mulling the request, and hasn't forgotten that the former president
campaigned for him in last year's congressional election. "He's done a
lot for me,'' said Rodriguez.
Senator Clinton's campaign is bracing for a possible
swing of black voters toward her chief rival, Senator Barack Obama of
Illinois, by focusing more attention on Hispanic voters. With one eye on
the nomination and the other on the general election, Clinton, 59, has
seeded her staff with Spanish-speaking operatives, starting with Patti
Solis Doyle, her campaign manager.
"I'm taking this one personally,'' Solis Doyle said.
"In 2004, Republicans made some inroads with the Hispanic vote. It's our
intention to get that vote back.''
Hispanics may play a key role in the 2008 Democratic
nominating process as well. Obama, 46, whose father was Kenyan, will
"probably draw about 60 percent of the African-American community,''
said Representative Edolphus Towns, a black Democrat from New York who
has endorsed Clinton. To win, "she's going to have to beat him in the
Hispanic community.''
Adding to the Calendar
Party leaders added two Hispanic-laden states to the
front of their nominating calendar: Nevada, where they make up about 20
percent of Democrats, and Florida, where they account for about 10
percent, according to Matt Barreto, a political scientist at the
University of Washington in Seattle. They will likely join Iowa, New
Hampshire and South Carolina as contests that can slingshot a candidate
to the nomination.
"Hispanics have an unprecedented opportunity to be a
decisive factor in Nevada and Florida,'' said Luis Navarro, manager of
Delaware Senator Joe Biden's presidential bid.
The campaigns themselves don't know how many Hispanics
will vote in primaries and caucuses, which historically see low
participation by Latinos. "We just don't have numbers on that,'' said
Hilarie Grey, Clinton's spokeswoman in Nevada.
To complicate matters, the Hispanic vote isn't
monolithic. In Florida, for instance, Cuban-Americans in southern
counties lean Republican. Elsewhere in the state, a growing population
of Puerto Ricans and non-Cuban Hispanics is voting Democratic.
Western Targets
More certain is the effect Hispanics will have in the
general election, especially in three western states that Bush narrowly
won in 2004: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All three have expanding
numbers of Latinos, with New Mexico's now at 31 percent of the
population.
President George W. Bush captured more than 40 percent
of the Hispanic vote in 2004, much better than the 21 percent
Republicans received in 1996.
After a divisive immigration debate, however,
congressional Republicans saw a sharp decline in Hispanic support in
2006, with their share dropping to 30 percent, according to exit polls.
At the same time, overall Hispanic turnout rose to 8
percent of the electorate, up 33 percent from 2002, said Simon
Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic advocacy group in Washington.
Arizona, which Bush carried with 55 percent of the
vote in 2004, might also be in play along with Colorado, New Mexico and
Nevada, said Moses Mercado, who directed Senator John Kerry's 2004
presidential campaign in New Mexico. "Even if turnout stays the same and
Hispanics vote like they did in 2006, not 2004, we win all those
states,'' he said.
Clinton's Edge
In both the primary and general election, Clinton has
a distinct advantage. "It's all part of our long drawn-out love affair
with Bill,'' said Representative Jose Serrano of New York, who has
endorsed Senator Clinton. A recent AP/Ipsos survey of Hispanics gave her
45 percent, Obama 17 percent and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson,
whose mother is Mexican, 5 percent.
"We never expect to be ahead in national polls,'' said
Jen Psaki, an Obama spokeswoman. She said Obama has appeared on Hispanic
media, including radio and TV shows on the Univision network. He also
has the endorsement of many Latino leaders in Illinois, among them
Representative Luis Gutierrez, Obama's sole Hispanic backer in Congress.
"When you know him, you like him,'' said Gutierrez.
"He has lots of room for growth.''
Even in Iowa
The scramble for Hispanic votes has even reached Iowa,
where Latinos make up roughly 4 percent of the electorate. Earlier this
summer, several campaigns tried to enlist Alfred Ramirez, executive
director of Diversity Focus, a minority advocacy group in Cedar Rapids.
He signed with Senator Clinton.
Clinton seems to be pressing her advantage. She has
designated a press secretary for Hispanic media, Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli,
as well as a Hispanic outreach director, Laura Peña. Sergio Bendixen is
conducting Latino polling.
Meanwhile, the
Democrats' lone Hispanic candidate, New Mexico's Richardson, has
identified his own ethnic liability: an Anglo last name. Richardson will
gain traction "once Hispanics recognize and realize that one of their
own is a candidate,'' said Rick Hernandez, a campaign adviser.