WASHINGTON (By Angie C.
Marek, US News) April 10, 2007 — Calling immigration
reform "a matter of deep conviction for me," President
Bush loosely outlined an immigration-reform proposal on
Monday that would include a guest-worker plan and some
way for people in the country to legalize their status
after paying what he called a "meaningful penalty."
In a speech at the border in
Yuma, Ariz., Bush also sounded a rare note of hope about the
Democratic-controlled Congress, saying of Washington, "I think
the atmosphere is good up there right now" to get something done
on immigration.
But few in the nation's capital
would most likely agree.
In recent weeks, after months
of closed-door negotiations, a bipartisan bill being worked on
by Sens. Edward Kennedy and John McCain failed to materialize.
(Insiders say McCain was unhappy with union provisions Kennedy
was interested in inserting into the measure.) A subsequent
draft of possible reforms the White House crafted behind closed
doors with Senate Republicans received slashing criticism from
longtime Bush allies in the business community. And on the House
side, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has added her own constraints to the
debate.
"I'm still cautiously
optimistic," says Tamar Jacoby, a Republican with the Manhattan
Institute who has long favored guest-worker reforms. "But
there's no question that time is short and that some people
might rather have a political talking point than a real
solution."
For the White House, some of
the biggest challenges could come from the Senate. Although some
23 Republican senators backed a fairly moderate guest-worker
bill last year, Jacoby says "the environment now is entirely
changed." The administration wants at least 25 Republicans on
board this time, and many are hedging their bets with an eye to
the 2008 elections.
A White House document
suggested eliminating some of the visa categories that allow
current immigrants to bring over adult children or parents and
giving those visas to high-skilled workers. The administration
also suggested charging immigrants unprecedented penalty fees:
Immigrants would have to pay $10,000 to earn a green card. The
roughly 12 million illegal aliens currently in the country could
also apply for temporary Z visas—work permits that could be
renewed every three years for a $3,500 fee.
Advocacy groups responded early
on to the bill by arguing that such stringent penalties would
only push workers deeper into the shadows and out of mainstream
society. Thousands of people came out this past weekend in Los
Angeles to protest the proposal.
In Washington, Democratic
heavyweight senators, one Hill staffer said, are still debating
whether they want to join the administration-led deliberations
and try to shape the White House proposal into a legitimate
starting point for debate.
"They're not negotiating yet,"
said the staffer." They're negotiating over whether even
negotiating on this is feasible."
In the House, progress is
equally murky. Pelosi has said she won't put new, moderate
Democratic members in a vulnerable spot. Although Democrats tend
to support comprehensive immigration reform, Pelosi says she
won't bring a guest-worker bill to the floor for a vote until
she's confident at least 70 Republicans will stand behind it.
Last year House Republicans succeeded in passing a get-tough
immigration bill that would have made presence in the country
illegally a felony, as opposed to the civil violation it is
today.
"This effort must be
bipartisan," says one Hill aide, "for us to be convinced
Democrats aren't stepping into a trap just before the 2008
elections."
Still, Bush is betting that
even with low popularity figures, his visit to the border can
draw some attention to some recent border success stories.
Hard-line Republicans in the past have said they might cooperate
with the administration if they're convinced the border is more
secure.
The Yuma sector of the border—a
118-mile stretch of land that runs from the Imperial Sand Dunes
in California through Yuma County in Arizona—has seen the most
dramatic drop in the number of arrests of illegal border
crossers in recent months. Border Patrol agents had 68 percent
fewer arrests in the Yuma sector from October to March 31 than
they had in the same period the year before. Those figures are
often used as a gauge of the number of people trying to cross.
Bush said though that even with
fencing, National Guard troops on the border, and technology
like unmanned surveillance drone aircraft, Congress still needs
to "take the pressure off the border" by creating a new channel
of visas that workers could use to come to the country legally
through immigration reform.
"It's important for [Congress]
to listen to everyone's position," Bush told the Arizona crowd."
And it's important for people not to give up, no matter how
difficult it looks from a legislative perspective." That's
advice the administration better hope sinks in.