WASHINGTON (By Charlie Cook, National Journal) April 18, 2007 —
The polarization between
Democrats, Republicans and independents on both politics and policy
cannot be overstated. The war in Iraq is perhaps the most vivid and
important example of the stark differences in opinions based on party
affiliation.
There is a chasm the size of the
Grand Canyon between Republicans and Democrats on the Iraq war. More
ominous for the GOP is that independents are coming down on the anti-war
side, if slightly less vociferously than Democrats.
This portends potential peril
for Republicans in 2008.
Let's look at the difference in
attitudes on Iraq using a CBS News poll of 994 adults, conducted last
Monday through Thursday, with a 3-point error margin.
Overall, 44 percent said the
United States did the right thing in taking military action against
Iraq, while 51 percent said the United States should have stayed out.
Among Republicans, 76 percent said it was the right thing to do and 20
percent said the U.S. should have stayed out. For Democrats, on the
other hand, it was almost the opposite: 21 percent said military action
was the right choice, and 74 percent said staying out was the correct
option. Just 38 percent of independents said it was the right thing to
do, while 56 percent preferred staying out.
On the
question of how things are going in Iraq, 2 percent of those polled
thought the war was going very well and 29 percent said somewhat well,
for a total of 31 percent. Thirty percent said the war was going
somewhat badly and 36 percent said it was going very badly, for a total
of 66 percent. Among just Republicans, 62 percent thought the war was
going very or somewhat well, compared to 36 percent who said somewhat or
very badly. Thirteen percent of Democrats said it was going well, and 85
percent said badly. Again, independents came down significantly closer
to Democrats than Republicans, with 23 percent saying that it was going
well and 74 percent saying it was going badly.
Those surveyed were asked,
"regardless of whether you think taking military action in Iraq was the
right thing to do, would you say that the U.S. is very likely to succeed
in Iraq, somewhat likely to succeed, not very likely to succeed or not
at all likely to succeed?"
Twelve percent said the U.S. is
very likely to succeed; 33 percent said somewhat likely, 29 percent
chose "not very likely" and another 24 percent said not at all likely.
Among Republicans, 72 percent
said success is very or somewhat likely, compared with just 27 percent
of Democrats and 36 percent of independents -- yet another example of
the thinking of independents aligning much more with Democrats than
Republicans.
In terms of what the United
States should do now, overall, 21 percent said it should increase troop
levels in Iraq, 13 percent said keep the same number, 27 percent said it
should draw down troop numbers and 33 percent said remove all troops.
Sixty-six percent of Republicans were in favor of increasing or
maintaining troop levels, compared with 13 percent of Democrats and 28
percent of independents.
Just 31 percent of Republicans
said the United States should decrease the number or remove all troops,
compared with 81 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of independents.
Regarding a timetable for
withdrawal, 57 percent of the total sample said they were in favor -- 34
percent of Republicans, 75 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of
independents. Sixty-two percent of Republicans surveyed said no to a
timetable, but just 19 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of
independents opposed one.
Finally, when posed with three
approaches Congress could take on Iraq, just 9 percent overall said all
funding for the war should be blocked. Twenty-nine percent said funding
should be provided without a time limit, and 58 percent said Congress
should allow funding for a limited period of time. Interestingly, only
13 percent of Democrats were for cutting off all funding no matter what,
tracking relatively closely with the 4 percent of Republicans and 10
percent of independents. Seventy-four percent of Democrats and 60
percent of independents favored continued spending with a timetable,
along with 38 percent of Republicans.
Fifty-six percent of Republicans
said Congress should allow all funding without a time limit, but just 10
percent of Democrats and 26 percent of independents went along with
that.
Looking at the data, it is
understandable why the natural reaction of Republican lawmakers and 2008
GOP presidential contenders is to hang with President Bush on the war:
Their base remains pretty supportive.
It is just as easy to understand
why Democrats are behaving the way they are.
Notwithstanding what they
personally believe, it's hard for lawmakers and presidential candidates
to defy their bases. But pending some resolution or fundamental change
in the fortunes of this war, the attitudes of independent voters may
well come to haunt GOP candidates in the general election.
As with impeachment in 1998,
Republicans are listening to their base, but independents are feeling
very different, potentially setting the stage for another bad election
for the GOP.
