WASHINGTON (By Susan Page, USA Today) May 7, 2007 — New York Sen.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has rebounded to a 15 percentage-point lead
over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential
nomination, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken after the
candidates' first debate.
Among Republicans, former New York mayor Rudy
Giuliani maintained a 14-point lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain.
Clinton is the only contender in either party to
show movement outside the poll's margin of error. She is the choice of
38% of the Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters surveyed, up 7 points
from a survey taken three weeks earlier. Obama is at 23%, 3 points lower
than before.
Giuliani is supported by 34% of the Republicans
and Republican-leaning voters surveyed, compared with 20% for McCain.
Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the
University of Wisconsin at Madison who studies polling, cautions against
making too much of shifts in national surveys 18 months before the
election.
"You should expect a fair bit of bouncing
around," Franklin says. He notes that debates at this point are being
watched mostly by party activists and political junkies: "They're not
real likely to show up in an effect on voters as a whole unless a
candidate makes some horrible mistake."
Still, Clinton strategist Mark Penn attributes
her boost in the poll to her performance in the opening April 26 debate.
"At the debate people got the first chance to see
them all side-by-side," Penn says, "and I think she is looking very
ready to lead."
The survey of 1,010 adults was taken Friday
through Sunday.
The USA TODAY survey shows yearning in both
parties for people who aren't running, at least not yet. Former vice
president Al Gore is the first choice of 14% of Democrats, ahead of
every candidate in the field except Clinton and Obama.
Among Republicans, former Tennessee senator Fred
Thompson finishes third at 13%; former House speaker Newt Gingrich is
fourth at 8%. Neither is now a candidate.
If the GOP choice comes down to Giuliani or
McCain, Republicans and Republican-leaning voters chose the former New
York mayor, 56%-38%.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters chose
Clinton over Obama, 56%-37%.
Asked an open-ended question about why they
support one or the other, 35% of Clinton's backers cite her experience;
23% favor her positions on issues; 17% like the fact that she is a
woman. Ten percent mention her husband, former president Bill Clinton.
Obama has become the candidate of choice for
those with concerns about the frontrunner.
Among his supporters, 37% say either that they
don't like Clinton, that she has "too much baggage" or that she is more
polarizing than he is. Another 10% say he has a better chance of being
elected president. Three percent of Clinton's supporters say they
support her because she has a better chance of being elected.
The survey's margin of error for the samples of
427 Republican and Republican-leaning voters and 491 Democrats or
Democratic-leaning voters is 5 percentage points. For the full sample,
it is +/—3 points.
In the poll, President Bush's job-approval rating
continues to be in the doldrums, at 34%.
He has entered his eighth month below 40%
approval — the longest stretch of such dismal ratings for any modern
president except Harry Truman during the Korean War and Richard Nixon
during the Watergate scandal.
Bush has
an approval rating of 47% for handling terrorism, 39% on the economy and
35% on foreign affairs. His lowest ratings (30% approval, 67%
disapproval) are for his handling of the situation in Iraq.