Despite the momentum building behind
Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania
and polls showing voters drifting in her
direction, it still appeared
mathematically impossible for her to
overcome Obama's delegate lead for the
party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled
Clinton's super delegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator
because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in
the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead,
268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed
super delegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
NBC's current national delegate count
stands at 1334 for Clinton and 1490 for Obama. NBC’s estimated super delegate
count stands at 267 for Clinton and 248 for Obama.
[There are differences in how news organization count delegates, how they award
super delegates, how they account for states that have held caucuses but have
not yet chosen their delegates, and how they project the apportionment of
delegates within Congressional districts where the vote was close. The
Associated Press and NBC news conduct separate delegate counts.]
That means the super delegates, the nearly
800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless
of state votes, will decide the nominee.
While it still may be a long shot, Clinton
advisers believe she is in a stronger position to argue that uncommitted super
delegates should give her candidacy another look even though she is trailing in
delegates, states won and the popular vote.
Inching up
She appeared to be gaining strength among
voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively to
Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator's former
pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for its treatment of
African-Americans.
Clinton strategists also say that Obama's
message of hope and change has worn thin as the slumping economy has diverted
voters' attention. Clinton's emphasis on policy proposals, such as her plan to
ease home foreclosures and her backing of a summer gas tax holiday opposed by
Obama, is winning over voters, particularly the working-class backbone of the
party, they say.
"There is a settled view among Democrats
and in the general electorate that Sen. Clinton is the better candidate to have
knowledge and leadership to turn the economy around," Clinton strategist Geoff
Garin said.
A poll released Thursday by the Pew
Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton's lead over Obama
nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points
in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in
Clinton's substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as
critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there
showed the outcome was a toss-up.
Slipping ratings
A second poll released Thursday carried
more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes the same
day as Indiana. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two
television stations in the state showed Obama's double-digit lead had slipped to
just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed,
Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a
statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points,
49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had
Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a
10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of
particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the
party's chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John
McCain.
Presumed GOP nominee
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of
America's farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel
are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly
$300 billion bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy
farmers. His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the
state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a
potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George
W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to
both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National
Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama,
despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
"This has got to come to an end," Andrew
told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all
the other super delegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
Asked for a response to Andrew's decision,
Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, "We support that Democratic process and
think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate
of his or her own choosing."
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a
memo to super delegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the
strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated
Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9
percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican
nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine super
delegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party.
Clinton gained four new super delegates, while also picking up four add-on
delegates from her home state of New York.
In the southwestern state of New Mexico, a
group of Clinton supporters, including four New Mexico super delegates, has
accused the state Democratic Party of breaking national and state party rules
when it nominated a 12th super delegate.
The woman chosen has said she is undecided, but the Clinton group believes she
is an Obama supporter. The Clinton supporters nominated their own candidate, who
they think leans toward Clinton.