The 51 to 46 vote was a triumph for
Democrats, who just weeks ago worried about the political wisdom of
a veto showdown with the commander in chief as troops fight on the
battlefield. But Democrats are hesitant no more. And now that
withdrawal language has
passed both houses of Congress, even Republicans acknowledge that
Bush won't get the spending bill that he has demanded, one with no
strings attached.
Bush is expected to veto the bill early next week.
But bipartisan negotiations have already started on a compromise to
cool the red-hot war debate, at least on the funding front.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)
spoke with Bush yesterday morning and later held initial talks with
Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.). Senior Democratic and
Republican lawmakers began to weigh alternatives to the
legislation's most contentious provision, the binding withdrawal
terms. The goal is to be more flexible but still restrain how Bush
conducts the war.
Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), who has criticized
Bush's war policy but opposed the Democratic bill as too
heavy-handed, singled out one development that has stoked a more
cooperative spirit on Capitol Hill: word that the Iraqi parliament
may recess for two months this summer.
"That would send a very bad signal to the world
that they don't have the resolve that matches the resolve of the
brave troops that are fighting in the battle today," Warner said.
The provision most likely to survive the next
round is a set of political and diplomatic benchmarks for the Iraqi
government. The language all but certain to be dropped, or at least
diluted, would require troop withdrawals to begin as early as July 1
and no later than Oct. 1. Another sticking point is the bill's $21
billion worth of domestic spending, which Bush and some Republicans
have protested as pork.
A significant number of Republicans support the
benchmarks — possibly enough to override a second veto, should Bush
resort to that. The measures would prod Baghdad officials to build
up military forces, crack down on militias and sectarian violence,
protect minority rights and manage Iraq's extensive petroleum
reserves.
Bush announced the benchmarks in January in a
televised address but set no consequences if the Iraqis failed to
deliver. The spending bill would make a continued U.S. troop
commitment contingent on progress — although only up to a point.
Beginning July 1, if Bush decides that the Iraqis
are falling short, U.S. combat forces would be withdrawn over six
months. If the government shows progress, the deadline would be
extended until Oct. 1, with troops leaving by March 2008.
GOP leaders signaled yesterday that they are ready
to negotiate. In the House, which passed the measure late Wednesday
largely along party lines, Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio)
said the veto "will give us a chance to sit down with our colleagues
across the aisle and find common ground."
McConnell said, "There are a number of members . .
. who do think that benchmarks could be helpful, depending upon how
they're crafted."
Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in
Iraq, has been in Washington for the past several days briefing
lawmakers as they voted on the spending package. He told reporters
at the Pentagon yesterday that despite an increase in troop levels,
the overall violence in Iraq has not declined, and he warned that
U.S. casualties may increase in the coming months.
Because his plan to improve security in Baghdad
moved soldiers from big bases to isolated outposts in the city,
"this effort may get harder before it gets easier," he said. "It is
an endeavor, again, that is going to require enormous commitment and
commitment over time."
While a deadline for bringing the troops home
would not survive a veto, the Democrats' legislative victory is
significant, beating expectations on both sides of the aisle. But it
also opens the door to complicated new challenges. House and Senate
leaders must establish terms that are tough enough to satisfy a
large antiwar faction, particularly in the House. At the same time,
they must water down the bill to a point where Bush will sign it.
Bush, Vice President Cheney and other
administration officials accuse Democrats of crass political
posturing. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino called the spending
bill "defeatist legislation" and reiterated Bush's pledge to veto
it. But she added that the president "looks forward to working with
congressional leaders to craft a bill that he can sign."
As the second phase of the spending debate
unfolds, antiwar lawmakers are pressuring Democratic leaders to seek
the most stringent terms possible. One idea is to pass a
shorter-term funding bill — possibly in the $30 billion to $40
billion range — that would allow Congress to revisit the war in
several months.
One champion of this approach is Rep. John P.
Murtha (D-Pa.), a senior appropriator with strong military ties, who
has emerged as one of Bush's strongest critics. Murtha is advocating
a 60-day bill that would provide enough funds for operations,
maintenance and personnel while carrying the current legislation's
provisions on benchmarks and readiness standards for deploying
troops.
Senate Democrats worry that a shorter duration
would be impractical. But yesterday, Reid confirmed that it was in
the mix. "We have a lot of things we'll look at — that's one of the
things," he said.
Democratic leaders expect the negotiations on a
new bill to run at least through mid-May. Although Bush has demanded
the money as soon as possible, a report last month from the
Congressional Research Service found that the Army has adequate
funding to carry it through the end of July.
Under other alternatives, the toughest provisions
of the war funding bill would shift to a defense policy bill that
will come before the House next month, or would be broken out and
beefed up in a separate bill in coming weeks. That would give
antiwar liberals measures to vote on, while the Democratic
leadership negotiates with Bush on war funding
The bulk of the spending package, about $95.5
billion, would go to the Pentagon for operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan. But Democrats also included a minimum-wage increase
that they have struggled to complete. They also added $21 billion
for veterans' and children's health care, port security, avian flu
research, drought relief for farmers and Katrina-related aid for the
Gulf Coast.
Bush has repeatedly cited the domestic spending as
one reason he would veto the bill. But some of the biggest
provisions have powerful GOP defenders, including Senate Minority
Whip Trent Lott and Sen. Thad Cochran, the ranking Republican on the
Senate Appropriations Committee. Both senators represent
Mississippi, which would benefit from nearly $7 billion in Katrina
aid.