An extensive review of the
National Security Council's role in the Iraq war and its
aftermath-based on interviews with a dozen former NSC
staff members, senior officials from the State
Department and the Pentagon, and outside security
experts-reveals new details of the White House's failure
to effectively manage the interagency effort on Iraq.
The review by U.S. News is based on a detailed
recounting of the NSC's interagency deliberations,
including the daily and weekly secure video
teleconferences conducted from the White House's
Situation Room. Rice and Hadley declined to be
interviewed for this account. Rumsfeld failed to respond
to an interview request.
Several important new
books, including Fiasco, by the Washington
Post's Pentagon correspondent, Thomas Ricks, and
State of Denial, by Bob Woodward have chronicled the
many missteps in the Bush administration's prewar
planning and post-invasion conduct. But historians will
be discussing for years how a venture vested with such
singular importance by its advocates could have been
conceived and executed with such myopia and ineptitude.
To date, the administration has failed to meet a single
one of the reconstruction goals it set for itself back
in 2003-goals for rebuilding infrastructure, defraying
reconstruction costs by increasing oil production, and
instituting a constitutional democracy with functioning
courts and the rule of law.
To understand the
genesis of the problems in Iraq, it is helpful to know a
bit of the history of the position to which Rice was
appointed in January 2001. Congress created the National
Security Council in 1947 to serve as the president's
principal forum for resolution of military and
foreign-policy matters. The council has four permanent
members: the president, the vice president, the
secretary of defense, and the secretary of state. A
variety of other cabinet secretaries and military and
other presidential aides attend NSC meetings, as well.
The job description of the national security adviser has
been shaped over time by presidential fiat rather than
by statute, and while it has been conceived somewhat
differently from administration to administration, it
has generally been viewed as the president's primary
surrogate for bringing dueling cabinet secretaries into
line, resolving differences, and framing issues for
decision. The term "honest broker" has typically been
affixed to the job description. So has the term
"knocking heads together." "Rice seemed to take the
position from the very beginning that she wasn't going
to knock heads," says Robert Perito, a retired career
Foreign Service officer, who served on President Ronald
Reagan's NSC staff and is at the United States Institute
of Peace. "She was just going to facilitate" for the
president.
"Stovepiped."
The result, virtually every close observer of the Bush
White House agrees, was a power vacuum that was filled
by Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney-particularly
after the 9/11 terrorist attacks-with Secretary of State
Colin Powell edged to a position of just marginal
influence. "For a long time, DOD got whatever they
wanted," says a former NSC staff member, using the
bureaucratic shorthand for the Department of Defense,
"because they were winning [in Afghanistan] and because
Cheney backed them."
On Iraq, the
Cheney-Rumsfeld axis was stronger than ever. The two old
friends were convinced of the urgent need to remove
Saddam; views to the contrary were unwelcome. Even in
the most intimate meetings with the president in the
Oval Office, where one was assured of confidentiality,
says a former NSC staff member, there was little candor
and few conflicting views, including from Rice. "The
discussions of how things were going were so wildly
optimistic and so out of line with the intelligence,"
this staff member says, "it was almost a cheerleading
role."
In
December 2002, President Bush made a crucial decision,
to give the Defense Department, rather than State,
responsibility for postwar reconstruction in Iraq.
Rumsfeld pushed hard for the responsibility, says
Douglas Feith, one of the defense chief's top aides in
the war-policymaking effort, because he didn't want to
see a recurrence of the problems that arose in the
Balkans, where the responsibility for civil
reconstruction and security operations was under
separate chains of command. "The people responsible for
civil reconstruction [in the Balkans] said, 'We can't
take the troops out or everything will collapse,'" says
Feith. "So the troops became hostage to the lack of
progress on infrastructure reconstruction."
In January 2003,
President Bush signed a national security presidential
directive, NSPD24. It was drafted by Feith and by
Hadley, Rice's deputy. The presidential order gave the
authority for management of postwar security, stability,
and reconstruction in Iraq to the Pentagon and created
the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian
Assistance. At Rumsfeld's request, Feith called
Rumsfeld's friend, retired Army Gen. Jay Garner, and
asked him to head up ORHA and begin the postwar planning
for Iraq. But Garner says he was told he probably
wouldn't ever actually go to Baghdad because the
president wanted to name an envoy who had national
recognition. "I went in as a temp," Garner told
U.S.
News. "That was always known in the administration."
Garner had just five weeks to coordinate the postwar
plans of all the different U.S. government agencies,
which, he says, had all been "stovepiped"-effectively,
shoved into different drawers, one having no relation to
the next.
In February, the U.S.
Army War College released a study by Conrad Crane and W.
Andrew Terrill spelling out the urgent need for serious
interagency planning, a multiyear commitment to Iraq,
and a real nation-building plan. "I understand there
were competing truths out there," Crane says. "I believe
the CIA had much more rosy scenarios than we did. But
people within the Army took the study seriously. Many
planners took it seriously."
The assault on Iraq
began in March 2003, with the 3rd Infantry Division the
first American troops to reach Baghdad. Not long after
the statue of Saddam fell, U.S. troops found themselves
battling with insurgents almost daily. "All of us had
military people coming to us and saying, 'This isn't
going the way they are saying it's going to go,' " says
Kori Schake, a former staff member at the NSC who once
worked at the Pentagon and now teaches at West Point.
"From the bottom up, everybody was saying, 'What happens
once we have Iraq?'" says Schake. "How does a military
plan that emphasizes speed and a city-skipping strategy
translate into control of the country?"
At meetings in December
2002 and January 2003, NSC sources say, Bush asked Gen.
Tommy Franks-the commander of the Central Command, which
drafted the Iraq war plan-how the United States would
establish security after the war there. The military
would leave "lord mayors" in every city, Franks told
Bush-although it was never clear precisely what Franks
meant. The lord mayors, in any case, never materialized.
Franks did not respond to an interview request.
"Lame duck."
On April 18, 2003, tens of thousands of Iraqis protested
the U.S. occupation of Baghdad and marched in favor of
an Islamic state. The looting and burning were so
serious that Franks refused to allow Garner into Baghdad
until April 21. By then, the city had been stripped
bare. On April 24, Garner's first full day in Baghdad,
the retired general was sitting alone at a desk in a
dusty room in one of Saddam's looted palaces when the
phone rang. It was Rumsfeld. He told Garner brusquely
that Paul Bremer had just been named U.S. envoy to Iraq.
"What that means," Garner recalls thinking, "was that my
first full day in Baghdad, with my entire team, I was
the lame duck beginning that day."
For the next two
months, Garner's team of 350 people had to begin
reactivating Iraq's government ministries, print and
issue new currency, fix power grids, restore water
supplies, draw up a new legal code, repair bridges and
roads, and get the schools back in business. The State
Department had drawn up elaborate plans, but Rumsfeld
and Feith ignored them. Garner's challenge,
unsurprisingly, proved to be overwhelming. "We didn't
have specific plans tested for years and red-teamed the
way the military plans are," Feith concedes. "We hadn't
integrated the plans with the combatant commands. We
hadn't done deployment exercises." Feith argues that the
U.S. government's postwar efforts have always been ad
hoc. But what happens after the fighting's over?
"Sometimes that goes well," Feith says, "and sometimes
that doesn't go well."
On April 28, Fallujah,
a key Sunni city and one of the most peaceful areas of
Iraq, went up in flames after U.S. troops fired on an
unarmed crowd marching in violation of curfew to protest
the U.S. presence; 16 Iraqis died. On May 7, a week
after President Bush's now famous "mission accomplished"
visit to the USS Abraham Lincoln, senior military
officers gave Rumsfeld an "upbeat" assessment of the
situation in Iraq and began making plans for drawing
down U.S. troop levels there by September 2003,
according to a report from the Center for Naval Warfare
Studies. By June, that same report concluded, central
Iraq was "in the midst of a low-level, decentralized
insurgency."
On May 12, Paul Bremer
took over as the interim Iraq administrator, and Jay
Garner's ORHA team was dissolved into Bremer's new
Coalition Provisional Authority. Bremer's decision, in
mid-May, to outlaw the top tiers of Saddam's Baath party
and dismiss some 30,000 Baathists from various
ministries has been widely criticized as among the worst
decisions of the postwar phase. But de-Baathification,
Bremer says, was the correct policy. "The mistake I
made," he explained in an interview, "was putting the
implementation of that [policy] into the hands of the
political body, the governing council, rather than a
judicial body, which would have been more objective.
Once it got to the politicians, they implemented the
policy in a far broader scope than we intended, and that was a mistake."
On May 23, Bremer
disbanded Iraq's 500,000-member military and
intelligence services, leaving thousands of angry,
jobless men with guns on the streets. "If we had
reinstated Saddam's Army, which had been the key
instrument of his repression," Bremer told U.S. News,
"it would have led to an immediate civil war." Key
military officials, including Gen. Peter Pace, then vice
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, later said that
the Joint Chiefs were not told in advance of Bremer's
decision. Neither, NSC officials say, was Rice.
With the violence in
Iraq escalating and the number of American casualties
climbing, President Bush asked Rice to become more
involved in the postwar effort. The White House insider
who had left the power vacuum 15 months earlier was now
being asked to fill it-immediately. "As the magnitude of
misjudgments becomes visible in Iraq," says a former NSC
staff member, "Condi becomes more responsible for the
management of the process."
On June 18, Rice met
with the NSC staff and expressed her fears about the
consequences of Bremer's decision to disband the Iraqi
Army. Were there enough U.S. troops in Iraq to deal with
a further upsurge in violence? she asked. "It looks like
we're not in a stability phase. It looks like we're
still in a combat operations phase," Rice said,
according to a former staff member. "It looks like we're
still trying to impose our will."
Rice told Miller, her
senior director for defense policy and arms control,
that she wanted him to restart the Executive Steering
Group, an interagency group he had cochaired back in the
summer of 2002, when the early war planning had begun.
Rice told Miller, "Find out what we have to do," an NSC
staff member recalls, "and find out how much time it
will take and how much it will cost."
Each morning at 6:30,
Miller rushed into his office in the Old Executive
Office Building next to the White House, peeled off his
coat, rolled up his sleeves, and grabbed the phone. How
much power had the grids in Iraq generated overnight?
What about the water? What was yesterday's death toll?
In an interview with U.S. News, Miller recalled
that the NSC staff was deeply engaged in postwar
efforts, but he downplayed his role and that of his
staff. Some in the Pentagon complained of White House
micromanagement, but Rice made it clear to her staff she
wanted action. "Dr. Rice reconvened the group because
things weren't working," Miller says, "so we got very
operational. That's because nobody else was doing it. We
were fighting fires every day."
On June 20, Army Col.
Anthony Harriman, the Pentagon's assistant deputy
director for Joint Operations, told NSC staffers that
the Joint Chiefs believed the level of combat forces in
Iraq was sufficient and that the plan was to take the
military police and artillery regiments and have them
operate as "straight-leg infantry," NSC sources say.
"What they recognized was that things weren't quite what
they should be," says one staff member. "But they
thought, 'We can take people trained to do different
things and make them act as infantrymen. That'll take
care of the problem.'"
It didn't. While some
members of the Pentagon's Joint Staff were talking about
drawing down troop levels, other information coming to
Miller and the NSC staff indicated that things in Iraq
were spiraling out of control. "In many instances, we'd
be reporting what the generals were saying, [and] we
thought we were giving Condi a measure of truth," says a
senior NSC staff member. "But what was happening was the
generals were also putting a big spin on it."
"Sanity
checks." If anyone on the NSC
staff could get hard information, it was Miller. A
career civil servant, he had spent 31 years in the
government, including two years at the State Department
and 22 years working for seven secretaries of defense.
Miller had been awarded the Pentagon's highest civilian
medal five times as well as the department's
distinguished public service medal.
Miller's Iraq team had
superb Pentagon connections. NSC staff members made
furtive forays onto the military's secure intranet, the
SIPRNET, for data about troop casualties and insurgent
attacks and started compiling their own spreadsheets.
They also tapped sources at Franks's Central Command or
got sympathetic sources at Bremer's CPA or former
colleagues at the Pentagon to let them peek at computer
screens to see what new information was coming in from
Iraq, and they called friendly embassies for "sanity
checks." One reliable source was Deputy Secretary of
State Richard Armitage, who shared the NSC staff's
concerns. A veteran defense official who had served
three combat tours in Vietnam, Armitage used his
tentacles at all levels of the military and the media to
get real data and share them with the NSC staff.
Members of Cheney's
office also proved to be allies, if unlikely ones.
Contrary to much of the conventional wisdom, the vice
president had only a small national security staff
working on Iraq, and-unlike in the run-up to the
invasion-he played very little role in the postwar
efforts, NSC sources say. The two Cheney officials most
steeped in Iraq issues were career Foreign Service
officers, both willing to help. The NSC staff then
started asking DOD questions. "The military staffs began
to respond," says a former staff member. "But they knew
we were passing this information to Rice. So they would
report the numbers but downplay the significance of the
trends."
Each week, there were
scores of White House meetings on Iraq in which the NSC
staff participated. Gradually, Rice shifted from the
counselor role she had envisioned herself playing to
more of a coordinator. "This was the president's
priority," says a former NSC staff member, "and the NSC
staff was being the sheepdog or border collie, yipping
at people to make sure things were getting done."
Executing was Miller's job. "I can't tell you the number
of times," says a former staff member, "when Dr. Rice
would turn to Frank and say, 'Frank, I want you to fix
it.'"
But there was only so
much even a seasoned veteran like Miller could do.
Rumsfeld was a consummate infighter with a strong
aversion to briefings that didn't have "some large
self-evident truth," says Feith, a former deputy. "Every
briefing has to say, 'Here's the cosmos; here's where we
are in the cosmos.' You need a map of the cosmos, with a
sign saying, 'You are here.'" Once that was established,
Feith says, Rumsfeld wanted to spend much of the debate
on assumptions that may have been made about the cosmos.
"His entire approach to life," says Feith, "is that
whatever assumptions you have must be re-examined
constantly in the hard light of facts."
What that meant for the
NSC interagency process, staff members say, was that
very little got done, because every meeting went back to
"first principles"; decisions about second-tier
issues-things like reconstruction-never got made.
"We got it."
In Baghdad, the new head of the Central Command, Gen.
John Abizaid, believed it was imperative to get the kids
with guns off the street. His solution: the Iraqi Civil
Defense Corps. "They way it was portrayed to us," says a
former NSC staff member, "was, 'It's a great thing.'"
But the program was neither funded nor adequately
planned out, Rice discovered. U.S. troops were told to
go to street corners and recruit young Iraqis, who were
happy to join the Civil Defense Corps-until they had to
actually fight the insurgents. "They fell apart," says
the former NSC staff member. "They ran away; it was
untenable." Bush pressed for answers. "I saw the
president ask Rumsfeld, Powell, and Abizaid at the
biweekly NSC meetings on Iraq, 'Is there anything I can
do?'" the former staff member says. "Nobody spoke up. It
was 'No, sir, we got it.'"
On October 2, David
Kay, the U.N. inspector charged with hunting down
Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, delivered a
devastating report. After an exhaustive four-month
search, he said, no such weapons had been found. A day
later, a New York Times/CBS poll showed that
support for Bush's Iraq policy was at rock bottom.
On October 6, Rice
established the intra-NSC Iraq Stabilization Group. Its
mission: Try to stop the train wreck. Each week, Miller
and others on the staff briefed Rice, Hadley, and
members of the ISG about the military, Iraqi security
forces, stability operations, and reconstruction
efforts. NSC staff member Schake briefed Rice on
coalition management of troop-contributing countries.
Gary Edson, the senior director for international
economics, briefed the group about Iraqi economic
issues. Frances Fragos Townsend, Bush's homeland
security adviser, addressed counterterrorism efforts.
Rice had also reached out to an old boss, Robert
Blackwill, who had recently served as ambassador to
India, to come work at the NSC, and he quickly became
focused on Iraqi politics and governance issues.
The various ISG
subgroups began attacking a whole range of crises.
Miller's group took security, stability, and urgent
reconstruction tasks, dubbed SWET-sewage, water,
electricity, trash collection. "If we had provided
palpable gains in those areas," says Miller, "the Iraqis
would have said, 'The future is getting better.'" This
later became known as the "man on the moon" issue-Iraqis
were saying, if the U.S. government could put a man on
the moon, why couldn't it provide them the most basic
amenities?
Rice's staff knew the
Iraqis were right.
The first task at hand
was ensuring that Iraqis had enough rice and beans, for
the holy season of Ramadan. "The notion that the White
House staff had to get involved with beans and rice is
almost laughable," says Miller, "except for the
consequences if it hadn't happened. And it wasn't going
to be fixed without top-down guidance."
The next issue was
power. After the United States took over Iraq, power
generation averaged 3,900 megawatts. Bremer had
indicated to Rice that by October 2003, power generation
would be up to 6,000 megawatts a day. The goal was never
met. Miller's objective was to force electricity
generation higher. When the Army Corps of Engineers ran
out of money to upgrade nearly 150 electrical generation
facilities, the NSC staff and the U.S. Office of
Management and Budget found some money and got the
plants upgraded. When workers refused to show up to
install the generators, NSC staffers demanded that
Bremer's CPA find a way to house them on-site.
Then there was
infrastructure-Miller arranged to have the OMB transfer
$250 million in reconstruction funds to support efforts
by an Army lieutenant general named Peter Chiarelli in
Baghdad, who was paying 18,000 residents in Sadr City to
help rebuild their neighborhood. "It shouldn't have been
the NSC staff," says Miller. "It should have been DOD
and the [U.S.] Embassy."
In the summer and fall
of 2003, the other big challenge for the NSC-and
Blackwill, in particular-was how to help the Iraqis move
to a working democracy and help them pull off an
election. Rice and Blackwill were old colleagues-he was
her boss and mentor while both served on George H. W.
Bush's national security staff, specializing in Russian
and eastern European issues. Blackwill was viewed as
brilliant but prickly. He also had the reputation of
having difficulty dealing with women. But Rice trusted
Blackwill and knew he had the right stuff for the job.
He was also an old friend of Bremer's.
Accounts differ over
precisely what happened next, but suffice it to say
there was intense disagreement among those assigned to
the NSC staff over the best way to try to pull Iraq back
from the precipice. Rice told Blackwill she wanted him
to pursue a strategy to bring disaffected Sunnis back
into the fold, in the hopes of quelling at least some of
the violence. Around that same time in Baghdad, a young
and upcoming aide to Bremer named Meghan O'Sullivan was
forging deep ties with leaders of the Shiite political
party known as the Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI. In June 2004, after Bremer
handed over sovereignty to the Iraqis and transitioned
the CPA over to the new U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,
Blackwill offered O'Sullivan a job back at the NSC. But
Blackwill's tenure there was short-lived. He was
replaced by O'Sullivan. In Baghdad, the young national
security aide had worked to establish closer ties to the
Shiite political leadership, including Adel Abdul-Mahdi,
a moderate who ranked as the senior SCIRI member in the
Iraqi government.
The association
resulted in some tense moments. During one meeting with
Rice, according to numerous NSC sources, O'Sullivan
advocated strongly for the Bush administration to
support Shiite candidates in the national assembly
elections, set for January 2005. Visibly disturbed, Rice
delivered a long lecture on constitutional democracy,
explaining why it would be inappropriate for Washington
to intervene on behalf of any individual Iraqi political
party. In the end, says one staff member, when
O'Sullivan realized that Rice wasn't going to budge, she
reversed course. But the incident, several NSC staff
members say, shows how contentious things were even
within the small, relatively cohesive White House staff.
In the view of some, O'Sullivan was primarily interested
in encouraging the Shiites to form a moderate coalition
with the Sunnis. Others complained that she repeatedly
advanced the view of SCIRI members. Still others argued
that Washington should make every effort to avoid
getting embroiled in the internecine Iraqi political
scene. The contentiousness among the NSC staff roughly
reflected some of the same differences within the upper
levels of the administration. Cheney's office, for
instance, was for near-absolute noninvolvement. Rice, on
the other hand, thought it made sense to quietly push
for a moderate coalition. In the end, such gaps proved
largely unbridgeable.
"Please, fix
it." In the spring and summer
of 2004, Rice and the NSC had oil on their minds. Rice
was concerned that without fuel, the electricity
generators would not function, and that without
generators, there would be no air conditioning in the
110-degree summer heat. She also feared that insurgents
were trying to isolate and bring down the Baghdad
government by attacking the oil pipelines. In the end,
the government failed to make inroads to boost oil
production and refining, in large part because of the
disarray of the CPA, the ineptitude of the Iraqi
ministries, lack of foreign investment, and the
sophistication and relentlessness of the insurgents'
attacks. Rice was more frustrated than ever. "You could
just see that she was tired," says a former NSC staff
member. "And when we would come to her, she would just
wave her hand and say, 'Please, fix it.'"
One of the most useful
tools available to U.S. forces in Iraq was the
Commanders' Emergency Response Program fund. The CERP
money was given directly to commanders and tactical
forces so they could quickly pay Iraqis for services and
to rebuild infrastructure. In March 2004, Lt. Gen.
Ricardo Sanchez, commander of the coalition ground
forces, asked Bremer to release more CERP funds. Bremer
refused. Sanchez went up the chain to Rumsfeld's deputy,
Paul Wolfowitz, who appealed to Bremer. Again he
refused. Soon after, the NSC's Miller was in Iraq and
learned about the problem; he told Rice, who made Bremer
release the funds.
The NSC staff began
calling Bremer the "Last Viceroy." "He was the
proconsul. We all existed at a level way below his,"
says an NSC staff member. "And he instilled in his
people the fear of God that said, 'Don't do anything
that Washington tells you to do, and you don't do
anything unless I tell you to do it.'" Bremer told
U.S. News that he reported to the president through
Rumsfeld, and that starting in October 2003, he spoke
with Rice virtually every day. "I did object to
third-string staff people in Washington second-guessing
decisions we were making," Bremer told U.S. News,
adding: "My view was if anybody back here had a really
good idea about how to do things better, I had a flak
jacket, a helmet, and a cot available for them."
Bremer's authority,
along with his and Rumsfeld's micromanaging, made it
impossible for Rice and her NSC staff to win the
David-versus-Goliath struggle against the Pentagon and
CPA bureaucracy. "I think they often wanted to do the
right thing," says a former Pentagon official. "They
didn't always put their muscle into the right thing.
When they did, it would be helpful. But often, it wasn't
enough."
Starting in the summer
of 2004, one of the most intractable issues for the NSC
staff was getting realistic assessments of U.S. efforts
to train the Iraqi police and military, without which
the United States could not even contemplate its own
exit strategy. The job of troop training was given to
one of the military's brightest stars, Lt. Gen. David
Petraeus, who had won plaudits for leading the 101st
Airborne Division during the Iraq invasion and the
subsequent occupation of Mosul, into early 2004. At the
time, Petraeus had been credited with fixing up the
schools in Mosul, getting the phones to work, the clean
water to flow, the lights turned back on, and generally
making life easier and safer for Iraqis. But there was
concern in Washington that these seemed to be very
temporary fixes, and that no sooner had the 101st
Airborne taken credit for cleaning up a section of Mosul
and left than the violence erupted again. "He was saying
how effective he was being," says a former NSC staff
member, "but throughout 2004, the CPA and, later, the
embassy were reporting that Mosul was a mess."
Petraeus told U.S.
News that he offered realistic assessments up the
chain of command. "Mosul did quite well there, for the
bulk of our time," Petraeus says, "even though we had a
tough time at various points, especially in November of
2003, during Ramadan." The 101st Airborne was redeployed
home by the end of January. Petraeus left Iraq in
mid-February.
The 101st Airborne was
replaced with an assortment of other units, which was
"half of what we had, and by November, it was at a
third," says one Army officer. "And the new unit did not
have the robust intelligence analysis structure that we
did earlier." By the summer of 2004, Mosul had become a
fertile ground for insurgents again.
"Metrics with
rigor." In June 2004, Petraeus
was tasked with training Iraqi security forces, a
crucial responsibility because it was tied directly to
the U.S. exit strategy. Once again, the initial news was
good-Rice's aide, Blackwill, returned from a trip to
Iraq that September and reported that Petraeus was
pumping out lots of newly trained Iraqi security forces;
Petraeus himself said he was making "huge progress." But
by December Blackwill's assessment had become
considerably bleaker. In January 2005, the State
Department issued a report giving Iraqi security forces
a failing grade; Pentagon officials now acknowledge that
they have no idea how many of the more than 300,000
U.S.-"trained" troops are still in the Iraqi security
forces. Petraeus says he was always candid in his
assessments of Iraqi troop readiness. "We tried very
hard to develop metrics with rigor," he says, "and to
continually improve them."
In January 2005, Rice
was confirmed as Bush's new secretary of state. Four
days later, an estimated 8 million people in Iraq went
to the polls to vote in elections for a transitional
national assembly. The United Islamic Alliance-a
coalition of mainly Shiite groups-won a majority of
assembly seats, followed by the Kurdish party.
Back in Washington,
President Bush asked Rice's former deputy, Hadley, to
become his national security adviser. Once he took
charge, Hadley's message was crystal clear: "The NSC
doesn't do operations." He immediately pulled the NSC
staff back from its "border collie" role in Iraq and
shut down its remaining efforts on reconstruction,
infrastructure, oil, and water. By then, Miller and many
of his colleagues working the Iraq issues on the NSC
Iraq staff had left for the private sector. Last
November, the NSC released a major report, "National
Strategy for Victory in Iraq." This past summer it was
roundly criticized by the nonpartisan Government
Accountability Office, the watchdog arm of Congress. "We
said it was lacking in important respects," says the
GAO's Joseph Christoff, who did the evaluation. "It
doesn't say how much it will cost; it doesn't say who
will take the lead."
The answers to those
questions remain elusive to this day. Perhaps they will
be provided by one of the three Iraq studies now
underway. Or perhaps not. "What's frustrating," says one
former NSC staff member, "is that we're dealing with one
small country, and we're tying ourselves in knots."